THE SWELL #4
SAIL Weekly Digest February 9–13 | Issue #4
This week, SAIL authors dissected the performance gap between Opus 4.6 and Codex 5.3, the mechanics of model “personas,” and the market disconnect regarding the AI bubble narrative. From the viral global rollout of China’s video models to the shifting landscape of autonomous driving, we move past benchmarks to analyze the strategic “masks” LLMs wear. On this Thursday’s Live, Nathan Lambert from Interconnects and Kai Williams from Understanding AI went deep on Character Training. → Watch the replay.
The Week in AI
OpenAI launched GPT-5.3-Codex and announced ads in ChatGPT — the dual release signals a company pivoting hard toward monetization while racing Anthropic’s Opus 4.6 on coding performance
$2 trillion wiped from software stocks — the largest non-recessionary 12-month drawdown in software in over 30 years, driven by fears that LLM agents will replace SaaS. Markets recovered midweek
Seedance 2.0 and Kling 3.0 dropped from ByteDance and Kuaishou — China’s AI video models went viral globally, with Seedance producing cinema-quality multi-shot sequences from simple prompts. Elon Musk commented: “It’s happening fast”
This Week from SAIL Authors
Models & the Post-Benchmark Era
Opus 4.6 vs. Codex 5.3 — Opus edges out Codex on usability; the era of meaningful model comparison needs new tools. Interconnects [→ Read more]
The many masks LLMs wear — From SupremacyAGI to helpful assistant, how models adopt and discard personas — and why character training matters. Understanding AI [→ Read more]
AI Investment: Boom, Not Bubble
($) Everyone’s looking for a bubble. No one sees the stampede. — Revenue is catching up to capex. The bears haven’t considered what happens when demand outstrips supply. Exponential View [→ Read more]
($) Exponential View #560: The $1 trillion panic; my favorite AI analysis tool; intention economy, CAR-T therapy & time++ — Wall Street overreacted to $650B in AI spending. Azhar unpacks what investors got wrong. Exponential View [→ Read more]
Data to start your week: Silicon billions ↑ EU renewables ↑ ChatGPT grip ↓ Lab costs ↓ — AI chips expected to generate half of all chip revenue in 2026 despite 0.2% of volume; Waymo raised $16B at $126B valuation. Exponential View [→ Read more]
($) Nebius Earnings: A GPU Cloud Masterclass — Nebius reported 6x revenue growth and $2.1B in quarterly capex. A deep read on neocloud unit economics and the infrastructure scarcity thesis. Interconnected [→ Read more]
China & Geopolitics
My week with the AI populists — The SF-DC axis tightens. A ground-level report on lobbying, power, and the strange politics of AI acceleration. Jasmine’s Substack [→ Read more]
Is China Cooking Waymo? — Chinese robotaxi companies are expanding globally while Waymo faces political heat over its Geely partnership. ChinaTalk [→ Read more]
Seedance, Kling and the Chinese AI Video Ecosystem — ByteDance and Kuaishou shipped competing video models that leapfrogged Western competitors. What it means for content creation and the US-China AI race. ChinaTalk [→ Read more]
Full Library
Opus 4.6 vs. Codex 5.3 — Nathan Lambert | Interconnects
The many masks LLMs wear — Kai Williams | Understanding AI
($) Everyone’s looking for a bubble. No one sees the stampede. — Azeem Azhar & Nathan Warren | Exponential View
($) Exponential View #560: The $1 trillion panic; my favorite AI analysis tool; intention economy, CAR-T therapy & time++ — Azeem Azhar | Exponential View
Data to start your week — Azeem Azhar & Hannah Petrovic | Exponential View
($) Nebius Earnings: A GPU Cloud Masterclass — Kevin Xu | Interconnected
My week with the AI populists — Jasmine Sun | Jasmi.News
Is China Cooking Waymo? — Nick Corvino | ChinaTalk
Seedance, Kling and the Chinese AI Video Ecosystem — Nick Corvino | ChinaTalk
Join us next Thursday for our Weekly Substack LIVE!