🔥 We checked. Again. Still no bubble.

A customer-led boom with a few fraying edges.

This post appeared in Exponential View.

“AI capex now matches the scale of the late-1990s telecom build-out at its peak.”

The verdict hasn’t changed. This is an AI boom, not a bubble. What has changed is the sheer scale.

Since we first ran this analysis in September last year, a lot has changed. Some 170 AI models have been released. The best now handle tasks four times as long as last year’s top performer. Usage has responded; quarterly token consumption has tripled.

The money has followed. The NASDAQ is up 20%; quarterly capex commitments have jumped 43% to $158 billion; and AI sector revenues have nearly doubled to $25 billion in Q1 of this year.

We’ve reviewed the data against our five empirical indicators, derived from analyzing 300 years of investment booms and busts. In our model, two indicators turning red indicate bubble conditions. Only one of these indicators is in the red; the rest range from green to amber.