📈⏳ The broken bargain of Moore’s Law
The physics has been slowing for years. The economics may be catching up.
This post originally appeared in Exponential View.
“The deal – the specific economic bargain that made the digital economy possible – is bending.”
A couple of weeks ago, Bloomberg reported that TSMC had no plans to use ASML’s newest chipmaking machine – High-NA EUV (EUV stands for extreme ultraviolet) – through 2029, citing cost as the issue. This may be a big deal.
Moore’s Law was always two things: a physical observation about transistor density, and an economic bargain about cost. The physics has been slowing for years.
Is TSMC’s hesitation the first sign that the economics are reversing, too?
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