How Much Compute Does China Have?

a deep dive

This post originally appeared in ChinaTalk.

“Without a concrete answer, the success of our export control regime and national security framework… can only be based on hunches.”

How much compute does China have? Despite its all-important relevance to American export controls, the AI race between the U.S. and China, and national security, this question remains unanswered.

Today and tomorrow, ChinaTalk will attempt to answer the question using two very different methods. Today’s article attempts to estimate China’s compute via a bottom-up (supply-side) approach. This piece will try to brute-force count every chip procured through every possible means. Tomorrow’s article by Nick Corvino attempts a demand-side approach. That piece tries to deduce the amount of compute China has based on the needs of training and serving the country’s models. The two articles, hopefully, provide a solid range of estimates that inform policymakers, but also future researchers attempting to understand China’s compute supply.